How the chance of winning is measured: RTP, volatility, frequency of hits
How the chance of winning is measured: RTP, volatility, frequency of hits
Introduction
In the online slot industry, the expression "chance of winning" is often used too generically. To understand the real probability of payments, players need to navigate in three main parameters: RTP (Return to Player), volatility and frequency of hits (Hit Frequency). These indicators form a mathematical model of any slot and make it possible to objectively assess its characteristics.
1. RTP - Return to Player
What it is: The percentage of all bets returned to players as long-distance winnings.
As measured by:
2. Volatility (Variance)
What it is: a measure of risk and distribution of winnings.
Types of volatility:
3. Hit Frequency
What it is: the probability that a particular spin will bring any gain.
Example: if the slot has a frequency of 25%, then approximately every fourth spin will be winning.
Why it matters: allows you to understand the dynamics of the game. Two slots may have the same RTP, but one will win more often and less often, the other less often, but larger.
4. Interconnection of three parameters
RTP shows the total return, but does not reveal exactly how it is distributed.
Volatility explains the nature of the game: it is stable or risky.
The frequency of hits sets the pace that affects the player's feelings from the session.
Example: Two 96% RTP slots can feel completely different. One - with low volatility and a hit rate of 30%, the other - with high volatility and a rate of 10%. In the first case, the player often receives small winnings, in the second - less often, but more.
5. How to use these indicators in practice
Beginners: It is worth choosing slots with high RTP and low/medium volatility for a more predictable game.
Experienced players: you can consider highly volatile machines if the goal is a large win and there is a readiness for long sessions without frequent payments.
In Australia in 2025: operators indicate RTP and volatility in game descriptions more and more often, and the frequency of hits is available in reviews of independent sources and on analytics sites.
Result
The chance of winning slots cannot be expressed in one number. It is formed by three key parameters: RTP, volatility and frequency of hits. Only their joint understanding gives the player a real picture of what to expect from the machine. In 2025, the conscious choice of the game is based on these indicators, and not on the subjective feeling of the "generosity" of the slot.
Introduction
In the online slot industry, the expression "chance of winning" is often used too generically. To understand the real probability of payments, players need to navigate in three main parameters: RTP (Return to Player), volatility and frequency of hits (Hit Frequency). These indicators form a mathematical model of any slot and make it possible to objectively assess its characteristics.
1. RTP - Return to Player
What it is: The percentage of all bets returned to players as long-distance winnings.
As measured by:
- If the slot has an RTP of 96%, it means that out of 100 AUD bets, an average of 96 AUD will be returned in the win.
- The indicator is calculated on the basis of millions of spins, so in a short session the result can be very different.
- In 2025: Many providers release multiple versions of the same slot with different RTP (e.g. 95%, 96%, 97%), and the casino chooses which option will be available to players.
2. Volatility (Variance)
What it is: a measure of risk and distribution of winnings.
Types of volatility:
- Low: Frequent but small wins.
- Average: Balance between stability and the chance of big payouts.
- High: rare but significant winnings that require patience and bankroll reserves.
- As measured: there is no exact percentage, a classification based on the mathematical model of payments and the probabilities of combinations is used.
3. Hit Frequency
What it is: the probability that a particular spin will bring any gain.
Example: if the slot has a frequency of 25%, then approximately every fourth spin will be winning.
Why it matters: allows you to understand the dynamics of the game. Two slots may have the same RTP, but one will win more often and less often, the other less often, but larger.
4. Interconnection of three parameters
RTP shows the total return, but does not reveal exactly how it is distributed.
Volatility explains the nature of the game: it is stable or risky.
The frequency of hits sets the pace that affects the player's feelings from the session.
Example: Two 96% RTP slots can feel completely different. One - with low volatility and a hit rate of 30%, the other - with high volatility and a rate of 10%. In the first case, the player often receives small winnings, in the second - less often, but more.
5. How to use these indicators in practice
Beginners: It is worth choosing slots with high RTP and low/medium volatility for a more predictable game.
Experienced players: you can consider highly volatile machines if the goal is a large win and there is a readiness for long sessions without frequent payments.
In Australia in 2025: operators indicate RTP and volatility in game descriptions more and more often, and the frequency of hits is available in reviews of independent sources and on analytics sites.
Result
The chance of winning slots cannot be expressed in one number. It is formed by three key parameters: RTP, volatility and frequency of hits. Only their joint understanding gives the player a real picture of what to expect from the machine. In 2025, the conscious choice of the game is based on these indicators, and not on the subjective feeling of the "generosity" of the slot.
